That’s the European headline papers in the UK have picked up on, understandably. There is quite the fog of uncertainty about this new variant. My own current understanding is that:
- Viruses mutate all the time of course, and there is a new variant.
- It is appearing often enough in testing that it appears to be spreading faster than other variants.
- If, as seems likely, it is thus more infectious, there is a risk of more deaths simply because more people are infected and, of course, there is a burden on health systems and control becomes harder.
- However this does not mean that it is more virulent.
- Even if it is less virulent at a population level, however, this may depend on age and other risk factors.
- The actions of the UK government in response were motivated in the first place by political concerns.
- The variant emerged in September and the UK government has known about it for at least a week, possibly more.
- The UK government used the emergence of this variant as a hands-tied excuse to impose restrictions over Christmas when everyone knew that restrictions should be imposed anyway – even when everyone didn’t know about this new variant.
- The UK government thought this way they could be the good guys who didn’t want to cancel Christmas but were forced to by the virus, and perhaps that any Brexit disruption could also be blamed on it.
- They were surprised and wrong-footed by other countries’ immediate imposition of travel bans and an apparent near-collapse of supply chains in the days before Christmas.
- The infrastructure put in place in Kent in the event of a no-deal Brexit could not cope with the sudden halting of cross-Channel traffic – it would undoubtedly have been worse had those preparations were not in place, but nevertheless they were unable to cope.
- This is the repellent, unprincipled, unserious leadership the UK has brought upon itself.
- Meanwhile, we wait for all the research to find out what this new variant (or other variants) bring to us.